Alaska’s state Department of Revenue expects North Slope oil production to decline over the next few years before recovering later in the decade.
In the latest update to its production forecast, the department said that North Slope fields were set to yield 492,100 barrels per day (bpd) on average in the current fiscal year, which ends on June 30, 2020. Output will then remain steady at 490,500 bpd in fiscal 2021, but the maturation of existing fields will push it down to a low of 434,000 bpd in fiscal 2024.
After 2024, though, North Slope production will start moving upwards again. By fiscal 2029, new projects will help push yields up to 494,500 bpd.
“[Several] new oil fields are progressing through the planning and development process. These new fields are expected to contribute to stable and increasing production later in the forecast period,” the Department of Revenue said.