The U.S. government’s effort to squeeze Iran out of world oil markets via sanctions does not appear to be wholly successful. Data compiled by TankerTrackers.com indicate that the Middle Eastern state may still be exporting as much as 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude.
TankerTrackers.com has explained its estimate by pointing to the movements of the Iranian’s tanker fleet, saying that satellite monitoring data justify the 1 million bpd figure. The tanker monitoring firm’s estimate is more than twice as high as the 400,000 bpd figure that Reuters reported in mid-January, citing data from Refinitiv.
Samir Madani, the co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, told bne IntelliNews that Iran appeared to be selling its oil in multiple markets. Some Iranian crude is passing through the Suez Canal to Syria, and the remaining volumes are going either to Asia or to traders in the Persian Gulf region, he said.
Under these circumstances, he added, Tehran has no reason to follow through with past threats to close the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker traffic. “All in all, these numbers confirm our original analysis that Iran has absolutely no desire to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz because it relies on it just as much as its biggest [oil] client [China] does,” he told bne IntelliNews.