Rystad Energy said on September 12 that it was more optimistic than other forecasters about the long-term prospects for U.S. unconventional oil output. In a statement, the Norwegian consultancy said it expected U.S. light tight oil (LTO) production to keep rising for more than a decade.
According to Rystad’s base-case pricing scenario, LTO yields are set to peak at 14.5 million barrels per day in 2030, with the Permian Basin accounting for more than half of total output. This is at odds with the more conservative predictions made by OPEC, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the statement noted.
Sonia Mlada Passos, a product manager on Rystad’s shale upstream analytics team, said that these pessimistic scenarios were unlikely to come to pass. “Based on our analysis, the oil price would need to be as low as $42 per barrel WTI going forward for the 2030 US LTO supply to be as low as [the] EIA presents in [its] reference case,” she said.